53: There's Gonna Be Some Flapping

Unpredictability

John Siracusa explores the unpredictable nature of market success, using examples like Flappy Bird to illustrate how social signals can skew outcomes. He explains that people often believe in a "just world hypothesis," where success is seen as deserved, but experiments show that increasing social influence makes success more unpredictable 1. In one study, when participants could see download numbers, the inequality and unpredictability of success increased, highlighting the role of social influence 2.

People want to believe that the world is fair and just and that what happened deserved to happen.

--- John Siracusa

This belief often leads to the misconception that a successful product was always destined to succeed.

   

Success Factors

The discussion shifts to the factors contributing to tech product success, emphasizing merit, marketing, and chance. John Siracusa argues that while a product's intrinsic qualities are necessary, they are not sufficient for success 3. He uses the example of Flappy Bird, which was on the app store for months before becoming a hit, to illustrate how timing and viral factors play a crucial role 4.

The second side of success is people seeing something successful and then working backwards from its success to determine why it was successful.

--- John Siracusa

This retrospective analysis often overlooks the role of chance and external factors.