Biden’s Worst Nightmare Is Now Coming True

Trump's Lead

Donald Trump's position in the Republican primary is notably strong, with polls indicating he is the most likely candidate to secure the nomination. Ben Shapiro highlights Trump's appeal as a "battering ram" against Joe Biden, similar to his approach against Hillary Clinton in 2016 1. This perception is bolstered by Trump's ability to connect with the Republican base, emphasizing his strength and potential to challenge Biden effectively.

Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a non-incumbent to win the Republican nomination, he's in a better position to win the general than at any point during the 2020 cycle.

--- Ben Shapiro

The New York Times Sienna College poll further supports this, showing Trump leading significantly over Ron DeSantis, with voters prioritizing his perceived strength over policy achievements 2.

   

Biden's Challenges

Joe Biden's vulnerabilities are becoming more apparent as the 2024 election approaches, particularly concerning voter turnout. Ben Shapiro explains that Biden's success in 2020 was largely due to unprecedented voter turnout, which he may struggle to replicate 3. The Democratic Party is particularly concerned about a decline in black voter turnout, a crucial demographic that played a significant role in Biden's previous victory.

Democrats are currently worried that black voters are not going to turn out en masse for Joe Biden.

--- Ben Shapiro

This concern is amplified by a ten percentage point decline in black voter turnout during the last midterms compared to 2018, highlighting potential challenges for Biden in key swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania 4.