Understanding the transmission bottleneck

Transmission Growth

The history of transmission in the U.S. reveals a pattern of significant build-outs followed by periods of stagnation. Rob Gramlich highlights the major transmission developments in the 1970s, driven by the need to connect remote coal and hydro plants to the grid. This era was followed by decades of minimal growth due to flat load growth and excess generation capacity 1. However, the early 2000s saw a resurgence in transmission projects to support competitive power markets and address grid congestion 2. Gramlich emphasizes the importance of transmission in decarbonizing the grid, stating, "There's basically just no way that we decarbonize the grid...without both building a boatload of new electricity transmission and improving the ways that we manage and plan for it."

   

Transmission Decline

Despite past successes, transmission development has slowed significantly in recent years. Rob Gramlich attributes this decline to factors like the unintended consequences of FERC Order 1000 and the rise of local solar and gas generation, which reduced the need for long-distance transmission 3. He notes that current transmission capacity is insufficient to meet rising demand, leading to increased congestion and curtailment of renewable projects 4. Gramlich warns, "We're going to have a much more constrained grid," highlighting the urgency of expanding transmission to accommodate future energy needs.