Cold War II + An Update on Global Conflicts — with Niall Ferguson

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Impending Conflict
The Middle East is on the brink of a potential conflict involving Israel and Hezbollah, with Iran playing a significant role in escalating tensions. suggests that Israel is preparing for a confrontation, as Hezbollah is better armed than Hamas and poses a greater threat 1. The Israeli government has been debating whether to strike Hamas or Hezbollah first, with the latter seen as a more formidable adversary 2. Ferguson notes, "We're quite close to the brink of a new phase of the Middle Eastern conflict, which in any case is a multi-front war already."
We're quite close to the brink of a new phase of the Middle Eastern conflict, which in any case is a multi-front war already.
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The urgency is driven by the need to act before Hezbollah acquires more weaponry and to allow displaced populations to return home 2.
US-Israel Relations
The US's support for Israel amidst these tensions is perceived as tepid by some, including , despite significant military coordination 3. He compares the current administration's support to that of the Nixon era, noting a shift in political dynamics within the Democratic Party 3. Ferguson points out, "The politics is very different in 2024 as compared with 1974," highlighting the changing landscape of US-Israel relations.
The politics is very different in 2024 as compared with 1974.
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This evolving relationship is further complicated by the internal dynamics of US politics, where elite control within the Democratic Party contrasts with the more fragmented Republican Party 4.