How Long Could Humanity Continue For? - Will MacAskill | Modern Wisdom Podcast 512
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Episode Highlights
Pandemic Threats
highlights the significant threat posed by engineered pandemics, which could potentially lead to human extinction. He explains that the technology to enhance the destructive power of viruses is advancing rapidly, making it increasingly accessible to create viruses capable of killing billions 1. However, he believes that proactive measures, such as Far UVC lighting and advanced protective equipment, can significantly reduce this risk.
It's not just about making sure that the future is long. It's also about making sure that's good.
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MacAskill also discusses the "Vulnerable World Hypothesis," which suggests that future technologies could give individuals the power to destroy the world. He argues that strong international norms and cautious technological development can prevent such scenarios 2.
Tech Solutions
In discussing technological solutions, emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in defensive technologies to secure humanity's future. He advocates for initiatives like "Giving What We Can," which encourages donations to organizations working to prevent pandemics and guide AI development safely 3. Additionally, MacAskill proposes the concept of a "civilizational backup," a refuge for a select group of people to survive and rebuild society in the event of a catastrophic pandemic 4.
Even if it was a small population, a few hundred people, that would be enough to rebuild civilization again.
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These measures, he argues, are crucial for ensuring the continuity and resilience of human civilization.
Collapse & Resilience
explores the potential for global collapse and the resilience of civilization. He differentiates between extinction and a global collapse, noting that while extinction is unlikely, a collapse could set humanity back to pre-industrial levels 5. Despite this, MacAskill remains optimistic about recovery, citing historical examples like Hiroshima and the Black Death, where societies have rebounded from severe setbacks 6.
Within 13 years, the population was back to the population before it had an atomic bomb dropped on it.
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He believes that the existing technological knowledge and resources would enable humanity to rebuild and progress once more.