Doug Rivers on Polling
Topics covered
Popular Clips
Episode Highlights
Bradley Effect
The Bradley Effect, named after Tom Bradley's gubernatorial race in California, highlights discrepancies between polling predictions and election outcomes for black candidates. explains that while historically there was an overstatement of support for black candidates, recent studies show this effect has diminished over time 1. He also notes that the New Hampshire primary's overstatement of Obama's support was likely due to sampling errors rather than racism 2.
The results of this study were that there was, in fact, an overstatement of the black candidate vote in the early 80s, but it disappeared by about ten years ago.
---
Rivers suggests that factors like age and education are more significant in explaining polling discrepancies today.
  Â
Convention Bounce
The phenomenon of the "convention bounce" refers to a temporary surge in polling for a party's candidate following their national convention. describes how this bounce typically results in a net swing of about ten points, although it doesn't occur every time 3. He attributes this effect to increased enthusiasm among the party's supporters and a temporary disengagement from the opposition.
The convention bounce is the phenomena that almost always occurs that during or after the convention of one party, that party's candidate gains several points in the polls.
---
Rivers emphasizes the importance of controlling survey samples to avoid skewed results during these periods.
  Â
Shifting Partisanship
Recent polling data reveals significant shifts in partisan identification, with Democrats losing their historical lead over Republicans. notes that since the 2004 election, Republican gains have largely been reversed, impacting the political landscape 4. He also highlights the changing dynamics of racial support, particularly how Obama's candidacy influenced black voter enthusiasm.
The most surprising thing that I found this year has been the shift in partisanship.
---
Rivers suggests that candidates like McCain must appeal to moderates and disloyal Democrats to succeed in such a polarized environment.