The Experimental Design of Paranormal Claims

Evaluation Process

The Independent Investigations Group (IIG) employs a structured process to evaluate paranormal claims. Applicants begin by submitting an online form, which is then assigned to a member who refines the testing methodology through email exchanges 1. Jerry Schwarz notes that many applicants fail to provide a clear explanation of their alleged powers, often dropping out during preliminary discussions 2. He explains, "They thought their power was working and it just didn't work" 2.

   

Fair Testing

Designing fair tests for paranormal claims is a meticulous process at IIG. The group uses rigorous statistical standards, requiring a probability of success by chance to be below one in 5000, much stricter than the typical scientific threshold of one in 20 1. Kyle Polich highlights the importance of empirical validation, stating, "If we're to take anyone seriously, we have to compare what they can do to how often someone could do the same thing purely by chance" 3. This approach ensures that any claim of paranormal ability is thoroughly vetted.

   

Testing Challenges

Conducting paranormal tests presents unique challenges, including potential cheating and logistical issues. Jerry Schwarz describes a case where an applicant claimed to discern if a person in a photo was alive or dead, requiring careful normalization of images to prevent bias 4. Despite these efforts, no applicant has passed even preliminary demonstrations, highlighting the difficulty of proving such claims 5. "We don't really have any experience with this because, as I said, nobody's ever passed a preliminary demonstration," Jerry remarks 4.