Predicting the Future
Steven Johnson discusses a study on expert political judgment and the surprising findings that experts are often worse than a dart throwing chimp at predicting the future. However, there is a subset of individuals who are significantly better at making long-term predictions. Johnson describes these individuals as either Foxes or Hedgehogs, with Foxes having diverse interests and distributed knowledge. The conversation highlights the importance of having hobbies and eclectic interests in driving breakthrough ideas and innovation.In this clip
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The a16z Podcast
a16z Podcast | Seeing into the Future -- Making Decisions, Telling Stories
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