The World's Next Countries

Greenland

Greenland's journey towards independence from Denmark is marked by increasing autonomy and a strong desire for self-governance. Since gaining home rule in 1979 and expanded autonomy in 2009, Greenland has been steadily moving towards independence, with current polling showing 70% support among its population. Gary Arndt highlights Greenland's strategic location and resources as key factors in its potential for independence:

Greenland is almost entirely autonomous at this point, and I think the transition to independence as such would be pretty smooth.

--- Gary Arndt

Despite its small population, Greenland's vast territory and resources make it a viable candidate for becoming a new nation 1 2.

   

Bougainville

Bougainville's path to independence from Papua New Guinea is rooted in historical grievances and a strong desire for self-determination. The region's struggle began with colonial-era exploitation and led to a brutal civil war from 1988 to 1998, resulting in thousands of deaths. In 2019, a non-binding referendum showed overwhelming support for independence, with 97.7% voting in favor. However, full sovereignty hinges on negotiations with Papua New Guinea.

A non-binding referendum saw a 97.7% vote in favor of independence, yet full sovereignty depends on negotiations with Papua New Guinea.

--- Gary Arndt

The timeline for Bougainville's independence is set between 2025 and 2027, pending ratification by Papua New Guinea's parliament 2.

   

New Caledonia

New Caledonia's struggle for independence from France is fraught with demographic challenges and historical conflicts. The Kanak people, who make up only 41% of the population, have been at the forefront of the independence movement, which gained momentum in the 1970s and 1980s. Despite three referendums held between 2018 and 2021, independence has not been achieved, partly due to boycotts and demographic complexities.

Of the countries I've mentioned so far, New Caledonia has the hardest road to independence because of the population demographics of the island and the fact that they're controlled by France.

--- Gary Arndt

The island's economy, primarily driven by nickel mining and tourism, remains heavily influenced by France, complicating the path to full sovereignty 3.