The Trump Campaign’s Theory of Victory

Strength Narrative

The Trump campaign is strategically framing the election as a battle of strength versus weakness, contrasting Trump's resilience with Biden's perceived frailty. Tim Alberta explains that the campaign has been built around this narrative from the start, emphasizing Biden's vulnerabilities in areas like the economy and foreign policy 1. This approach is reinforced by key moments such as the debate and an assassination attempt, which the campaign believes highlight Trump's strength 2. Alberta notes, "The Trump people believe...the question of Biden being weak is time and time again the most effective line of attack on him."

   

Voter Tactics

The Trump campaign is employing targeted strategies to engage low-propensity voters, particularly those who have not traditionally supported Republicans. Ezra Klein highlights how the campaign is making gains among unexpected demographics, such as younger voters and Black men 3. Alberta explains that the campaign is using micro-targeting to reach these groups, focusing on disillusionment with the Democratic Party rather than traditional ground operations 4. "This is probably going to be the first election where the low engagement, low propensity voters are overwhelmingly breaking towards the Republican Party," Alberta observes.

   

Integrity Focus

Trump's campaign has shifted focus towards election integrity, reallocating resources from traditional ground operations to a massive monitoring network. Tim Alberta describes this as a risky move, potentially impacting down-ballot Republicans who rely on organized ground support 5. Meanwhile, the campaign has evolved its stance on vote by mail, now actively encouraging it as a tactical advantage 6. Alberta notes, "Trump has not just embraced it rhetorically, his campaign now is building out a very sophisticated apparatus."