Predicting the Future
Making accurate predictions is challenging, often hindered by biases like hindsight, which leads us to believe we were right all along. While some forecasters, like a retired irrigation specialist, outperform esteemed intellectuals, success often hinges on skill rather than luck. Superforecasters share unique philosophies and thinking styles that contribute to their remarkable accuracy in predicting complex global events.In this clip
From this podcast
Hidden Brain
You Don't Need a Crystal Ball
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