Superforecasting Insights
Superforecasters approach predictions by starting with external data, such as demographic divorce rates, to establish a baseline probability. This method allows for adjustments based on specific insights about the couple, highlighting the importance of small events in shaping forecasts. The contrast between emotional narratives and statistical reasoning reveals how our minds often favor storytelling over objective analysis.In this clip
From this podcast
Hidden Brain
You Don't Need a Crystal Ball
Related Questions
How does Dr. John Gottman predict divorce?
How does Dr. John Gottman predict divorce in the episode The Science Behind Why Relationships Last Or Fail - Drs John & Julie Gottman and the clip Relationship Success Factors?
Research that examined married couples and predicted with high accuracy who would divorce within a year