The Power of Stories
People often overestimate the likelihood of events when they are framed as compelling stories, leading to skewed predictions. By starting with base rates and avoiding the allure of storytelling, forecasters can improve their accuracy. Professionals differentiate their predictions with specific probability estimates, allowing for better learning from past outcomes, while luck can sometimes mask true skill in forecasting.In this clip
From this podcast
Hidden Brain
You Don't Need a Crystal Ball
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