Joe Rogan Experience #1777 - Andrew Dessler

Economic Impacts

The economic impacts of climate change are fraught with uncertainty, as highlighted by Andrew Dessler. He points out that estimates of GDP loss due to climate change vary dramatically, with some predicting a 20% loss while others suggest as little as 2% 1. This variability stems from the different assumptions made in economic models, which can lead to a tenfold difference in predictions 2. Dessler emphasizes the unpredictability of these impacts, stating, "We have no idea what the cost of climate impacts are going to be."

Anybody who tells you that they know what three degrees is going to be like is either a liar or a fool.

--- Andrew Dessler

He argues that this uncertainty is a significant reason to take action against climate change.

   

Cost Controversies

Historical debates over the costs of climate impacts reveal deep uncertainties in economic modeling. Andrew Dessler explains how different administrations have produced vastly different estimates for the social cost of carbon, highlighting the influence of value judgments over scientific data 3. For instance, the Obama administration estimated $35 per ton of carbon, while the Trump administration's figure was just $3, reflecting differing priorities and assumptions 3. Dessler criticizes these models for their lack of reliability, noting that they often ignore the inherent uncertainties.

Economic estimates are completely suffused with value judgments.

--- Andrew Dessler

He argues that these discrepancies underscore the challenges in predicting the true economic impact of climate change.

   

Infrastructure Challenges

The adaptation of infrastructure to climate change presents significant challenges and costs. Andrew Dessler describes how infrastructure, such as bridges and railroads, is designed for specific temperature ranges, and deviations can lead to failures like buckling and expansion 4. He highlights the Pacific Northwest heat wave, where extreme temperatures caused roads to buckle, illustrating the costly adaptations required 5. Dessler warns that the financial burden of these adaptations is often underestimated.

We have trillions of adaptations exactly like that to the climate.

--- Andrew Dessler

He stresses that ignoring these potential costs could lead to severe economic consequences.