Vali Nasr — The Sunni-Shia Divide and the Future of Islam

Power Shifts

The Middle East's political landscape is a dynamic and evolving entity, much like a movie rather than a static picture, according to Vali Nasr. He emphasizes that the region's future hinges on Iraq's trajectory, questioning whether it will serve as a model for peace or descend into further conflict 1. Nasr also highlights the complexity of Islam as a civilization, noting that the U.S. cannot dictate its evolution. He states, "It's a process that it's impossible to control. It is almost like trying to control the climate" 2.

   

U.S. Policies

U.S. interventions in Iraq have significantly altered the balance of power in the Middle East, particularly between Shia and Sunni factions. Vali Nasr explains that the U.S. inadvertently empowered Shia groups, making Iraq more aligned with Iran, a shift that has reverberated throughout the region 3. This intervention has also elevated non-Arab actors like Turkey and the Kurds, reshaping the geopolitical map. Nasr notes, "It's not a coincidence that even the sectarian war in Iraq had not even begun when the king of Jordan began talking about a Shia crescent" 4.

   

Economic Interests

Economic interests play a crucial role in shaping political stability in the Middle East. Vali Nasr points out that the business class in Iraq, particularly in the south, supports stability as it aligns with their economic interests 5. He draws parallels to historical Western contexts, suggesting that just as early American capitalists bridged capitalism and faith, Muslim capitalists will find ways to align piety with business. Nasr remarks, "Faith is faith, but business is business," highlighting the pragmatic approach of the region's entrepreneurial class 6.