When will AI match humans?
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The timeline for when AI might match human capabilities is a topic of considerable debate among experts. Here are some perspectives derived from Dwarkesh Patel's discussions:
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Carl Shulman suggests that if current AI scale-up efforts are successful, achieving AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) could happen very quickly, potentially within the next ten years. However, if the scale-up is ineffective, it may take decades due to slower, incremental advances supported by economic growth 1.
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Paul Christiano offers probabilistic estimates, with a 15% chance of significant AI advancements by 2030 and a 40% chance by 2040. He considers these AI capabilities contextually, such as the ability to create large-scale projects like a Dyson sphere 2.
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Demis Hassabis notes that when DeepMind was founded in 2010, they envisioned AGI development as a 20-year project. He believes this timeline is still on track, suggesting AGI-like systems may emerge within the next decade. He also acknowledges that societal decisions will influence the speed and use of such technology 3.
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Shane Legg predicted as early as 2009 that human-level AI might be expected around 2025, primarily based on the exponential growth of computational power and data. His reasoning remains rooted in the belief that scalable algorithms harnessing these resources will lead to AGI 4.
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Holden Karnofsky has grown more concerned over time due to rapid advancements in AI capabilities. He emphasizes the unpredictable nature of AI's abilities, as observed with models like GPT-3, which demonstrate a wide range of tasks despite simple training procedures 5.
These varied perspectives highlight the uncertainties and differing expectations in the field regarding when AI might genuinely match human intelligence.
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