Pascal's Mugging
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Pascal's Mugging is a thought experiment that extends Pascal's Wager, discussed by Will MacAskill on the . Here’s a summary of their conversation:
Pascal's Wager
Pascal's Wager proposes that one should believe in God, even if the probability of God's existence is extremely low, because the potential payoff (infinite happiness) is immense. The expected value calculation (probability of infinite happiness) suggests that the rational choice is to believe and act as if God exists 1.
Pascal's Mugging
Pascal's Mugging updates this idea with a more contemporary scenario. Imagine Pascal being confronted by a person (the "mugger") who demands money, claiming that if Pascal gives the money, the mugger will return and provide anything Pascal desires. The improbability of the mugger's promise is countered by the small but non-zero chance and the potentially infinite reward. This implies that, according to Pascal's logic, Pascal should comply with the mugger's demands. This experiment illustrates a flaw in expected value calculations when small probabilities and large payoffs are involved. Such logic can lead to absurd conclusions, demonstrating the limitations of this approach in real-life decision-making 1.
Implications
In their discussion, both MacAskill and Ferriss recognize that while the theoretical framework behind Pascal's Mugging makes mathematical sense, it seems impractical and absurd in real life. They humorously suggest that this concept, if taken literally, would mean one should invest in highly speculative ventures due to their minuscule chances of extreme payout 1.
Real-World Applications
MacAskill also touches on how this theoretical framework fails when applied practically, especially in the context of altruism and charity. Rather than relying on abstract probabilities, effective altruism aims for concrete, measurable impacts that donors can see and trust, avoiding the pitfalls of "Pascal's Mugging" logic 2.
This summary presents a balanced view of Pascal's Mugging and its critiques, highlighting its influence and limitations in practical decision-making and philosophical discussions.
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