Are there dangers in progress?

Yes, there can be dangers associated with progress. Here are some key insights from trusted experts:

1. Increased Interdependence:

   • Jason Crawford discusses how progress and innovation increase interdependence, making civilizations more vulnerable to unforeseen events like pandemics. While historical interdependence among humans has always existed, modern systems may be more susceptible to large shocks. However, the same advancements in science and technology that created these vulnerabilities can also be used to build resilience and mitigate risks 1.

2. AI Risks:

   • Roman Yampolskiy mentions that rapid development in AI, such as moving from GPT-4 to an uncontrollable GPT-5, poses significant risks. The unpredictability and general capability for AI to learn and grow more dangerous over time highlight the importance of developing defenses against these emerging threats before they manifest uncontrollably 2.
   • Similarly, Eliezer Yudkowsky warns that building superhumanly smart AI under current conditions could lead to the extinction of humanity. The unpredictability of AI capabilities and the potential for emergent properties call for precaution and significant preparation 3.
     
     1
     The Risks of Progress
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     2
     Uncontrollable AI Risks
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     3
     Dangers of AI
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     4
     Social Media Dangers
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     5
     Human Progress Shadows
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     6
     Evolving Perceptions of Harm
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3. Social Media:

   • Scott Galloway points out the dangers of social media, especially its impact on children. While it offers benefits, the addictive nature of social media and its potential to harm young minds call for protective measures such as age restrictions 4.

4. Existential Risks:

   • Toby Ord highlights that technological advancements have increased existential risks. The very progress that has enabled globalization and cultural exchange also creates scenarios where novel viruses can quickly spread globally. Additionally, the democratization of powerful technologies increases the potential for catastrophic misuse 5.

5. Shifting Perceptions of Harm:

   • Clay Routledge explains that as physical dangers diminish due to societal progress, people become more sensitive to less tangible threats like offensive speech. This shift reflects the psychological adaptation to increasingly safer environments, yet also brings new challenges in balancing freedom and protection from perceived harms 6.

These insights underscore that while progress brings many benefits, it also necessitates careful consideration and management of new risks.