What is technological contingency?
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Technological contingency refers to the idea that the development and adoption of certain technologies are influenced by various factors, often resulting in unpredictable outcomes.
provides examples to illustrate this concept. For instance, some societies developed advanced metallurgy like gold and copper but did not adopt iron or steel, even though these could have been extremely beneficial given their warlike nature 1. The discrepancy lies not in the technological potential but in contingent factors such as cultural priorities, availability of resources, or even historical accidents.
expands on this by discussing economic and technological history. He argues that over long periods, economic and technological advancements tend to be non-contingent. Regardless of specific setbacks, the strong incentives for technological and economic progress drive societies towards similar endpoints, albeit with varying timelines 2. However, short-term contingencies, such as the early use of unique innovations like the steam engine, do highlight instances of technological contingency before widespread industrialization.
In summary, while technological development might seem inevitable in the long run, its path is frequently shaped by contingent events and decisions.
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