Can crypto cycles be predicted?

Experts have diverse views on predicting crypto cycles. Some, like Jim Bianco, see patterns in four-year cycles, akin to seasonal changes, and believe the crypto market follows a recurrent bull and bear market cycle 1. Raoul Pal agrees that human cyclical behavior heavily influences crypto, making cycles somewhat predictable, although he notes they may evolve over time 2.

However, others, like Benjamin Cowen, caution against overly deterministic predictions. He argues that markets often deviate from expected patterns due to market participants pre-emptively acting on anticipated trends 3. This suggests that while historical patterns offer some guidance, prediction remains an inherently uncertain endeavor.