Are we running out of easy discoveries?

The question of whether we are running out of easy discoveries is explored by Dwarkesh Patel and Tyler Cowen in a discussion on the Lunar Society. Patel suggests that the consistent decline in research productivity could be because we've picked the low-hanging fruits. Cowen agrees that exhausting these easier discoveries at a technological level is a significant reason for stagnation. He mentions that breakthrough technologies, which can rejuvenate the pool of easy discoveries, take time to develop.

Cowen remains optimistic due to the diverse sources of ideas and considerable current progress in fields such as mRNA technology, AI, and fusion, which indicates that all is not grim. Despite concerns about the bureaucratization of science, Cowen doesn't see it as the primary issue holding back discoveries 1.