How can models change rapidly?


Dwarkesh Patel and Will MacAskill discuss how models can change rapidly in the context of technological progress and long-termism. They explore the impact of potential future technologies like artificial general intelligence (AGI), which could lead to singular-level technological advances within the next 10-20 years. MacAskill notes that historically, model change has taken centuries, but he argues that modern movements, such as the effective altruism movement, have shown much faster change, growing at about 30% per year. This suggests that model change can indeed happen very swiftly under certain conditions, particularly when driven by significant technological or societal shifts 1.

Rapid Model Change

Dwarkesh and Will discuss the potential for rapid model change in the face of technological progress, particularly in relation to long-termism and the impact of artificial general intelligence. They explore the possibility of promoting better values and the potential payoffs in a rapidly evolving world.

The Lunar Society

Will MacAskill - Longtermism, Effective Altruism, History, & Technology