How can models change rapidly?

Dwarkesh Patel and Will MacAskill discuss how models can change rapidly in the context of technological progress and long-termism. They explore the impact of potential future technologies like artificial general intelligence (AGI), which could lead to singular-level technological advances within the next 10-20 years. MacAskill notes that historically, model change has taken centuries, but he argues that modern movements, such as the effective altruism movement, have shown much faster change, growing at about 30% per year. This suggests that model change can indeed happen very swiftly under certain conditions, particularly when driven by significant technological or societal shifts 1.