Will China reclaim Taiwan?

The question of whether China will reclaim Taiwan is complex and multi-faceted. Experts have shared various perspectives on the issue:

1. Legal and Incremental Approaches: Some experts, like Andrew Bustamante and Walter Russell Mead, suggest that China may use legal maneuvers similar to those used in Hong Kong to assert control over Taiwan. This strategy involves leveraging international legal systems and gradual, incremental actions to avoid direct military confrontation 1 2.

2. Risk of Military Action: There's also speculation about the potential for military action by 2027, a timeline by which many believe China will have achieved military parity with the United States. However, some experts, like Velina Tchakarova, argue that China may opt for a long-term strategy of political, social, and economic penetration rather than a high-risk military invasion 3.

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     1

     Legal Moves on Taiwan

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     2

     China's Incremental Expansion

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     3

     China's Taiwan Strategy

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     4

     China's Nationalism

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     5

     Taiwan's Looming Threat

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     6

     Taiwan's Complex Reality

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3. Nationalism and Internal Politics: Sarah C. M. Paine highlights the role of nationalism in China’s strategy. The Chinese Communist Party may use the issue of Taiwan to bolster domestic support amidst economic and political challenges, potentially leading to a more aggressive stance 4. Similarly, The Honourable Tony Abbott warns of China's growing oppression and the likelihood of military action if China perceives low international resistance 5.

4. Geopolitical and Historical Context: Ray Dalio provides historical context, noting that Taiwan’s reintegration into China is viewed as a non-negotiable issue in China's national policy. Any move suggesting Taiwanese independence could provoke a strong reaction from China, potentially leading to conflict 6.

In summary, while the potential for China to reclaim Taiwan is influenced by a mix of legal strategies, incremental expansion, nationalist rhetoric, and historical context, the exact path remains uncertain. International dynamics, particularly the responses from the United States and its allies, will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome.