Can the revolution still be won?

The prospects of winning a revolution can vary significantly based on numerous factors. Here are insights from experts on the subject:

1. Iranian Context: Philip Mudd, a former CIA/FBI official, believes that Americans tend to overestimate the chances of a successful revolution in Iran. Despite the desire for democratic reforms, the strong security apparatus and overestimation of popular support for such revolutions make the chances modest at best 1.

2. Transaction Between Democracy and Stability: Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a political science professor, discusses how the presence of public goods and coordination freedoms can influence revolutionary success. If a government faces a revolutionary threat, it can either democratize by offering more public goods or clamp down on freedoms to maintain control, often influenced by factors like natural resources or foreign aid 2.

3. Human Nature and Revolutionary Behavior: Coleman Hughes highlights the transformational effect of revolutionary times on human behavior, drawing parallels to the cultural revolution in China. He emphasizes that revolutions often stem from deep-seated human instincts and societal conditions such as widespread discontent with authority figures 3.

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     1

     Revolution Prospects

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     2

     Revolutionary Threats and Democratic Transitions

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     3

     Human Nature Explored

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     4

     The Impact of War

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     5

     Revolutionary Outcomes

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4. Impact of War on Revolutions: Alexander Mikaberidze points out that wars can intensify revolutionary movements, leading them to be more radical than initially intended. The French Revolution, for instance, escalated dramatically due to the pressures of war, leading to cycles of violence and political instability that might not have occurred otherwise 4.

5. Surprising Outcomes and Conservative Resilience: Christopher Clark discusses the unforeseen outcomes in revolutionary periods, such as the rise of Napoleon III. These periods often reveal the underestimated strength of conservative factions and a broader population's backlash against radical changes, highlighting the complexity and unpredictability of revolutions 5.

These insights underline that the success of a revolution depends on a myriad of dynamic and often unpredictable factors, from societal conditions and government reactions to the broader geopolitical context.