What are the odds of conceiving?


The odds of conceiving vary significantly based on factors such as the age and health of the woman. Here are the key points regarding the probabilities of conceiving naturally at different ages:

  • Ages 30 or Younger: The probability of conceiving in any given month is 20%. If unsuccessful, it is advised to try again in subsequent months. Couples should attempt to conceive over a period of about six months before seeking medical advice if unsuccessful 1.

  • Ages 31 to 33: The probability drops to about 18% in the first month, and couples are generally advised to try for six or seven months to reach a cumulative probability close to 100% 2.

  • Ages 34 to 37: The probability decreases further to about 11%. Couples should try for about nine months to a year before considering medical interventions due to further decreases in egg quality 2.

  • Ages 38 to 39: The odds of a successful conception fall to about 5%, indicating a substantial decline. Women at this age should consult with OB/GYNs right at the beginning of trying to conceive to discuss ways to potentially improve egg quality 2.

  • Ages 40 and Older: The probabilities become even lower, ranging around 1% to 3%, necessitating a consideration of potential fertility treatments and consultations with healthcare professionals early in the attempt to conceive process 2.

These statistics represent averages and individual circumstances may vary.

Fertility Probabilities

Andrew explains the probability of successfully conceiving a child in the first attempt and why it's important to keep trying. He also discusses the cumulative pregnancy rate and how it differs from independent probabilities.

Huberman Lab

How to Optimize Fertility in Males & Females | Huberman Lab Podcast