Is economic progress non-contingent?

Economic progress is largely considered non-contingent in the long run, according to Dwarkesh Patel and his guests. Patel discusses examples where societies rebounded quickly after severe hardships, such as Hiroshima, Vietnam, and post-Black Death Europe, suggesting that despite setbacks, economic progress continues due to strong underlying incentives for technological and economic development. This reflects a non-contingent nature of economic progress, contrasting with more contingent moral or societal progress 1.

Will MacAskill also supports this notion by describing how technological advancements eventually occur across different societies, driven by high incentives. He uses the example of the Industrial Revolution, asserting that even if it hadn't emerged in Britain, similar technologies would have developed elsewhere eventually 1.

Tyler Cowen adds perspective regarding the long-term horizon for economic growth, arguing that significant earthbound challenges can be tackled through continuous economic growth, even if expansion into space remains uncertain 2.