How fast is AI progressing?

AI progress is accelerating rapidly. Estimates suggest that the doubling time of software progress could decrease from eight months to as little as two months as AI capabilities develop. This indicates an exponential increase in AI advancements, potentially leading to an intelligence explosion 1.

AI's unprecedented capabilities highlight its unpredictable and rapid growth. For instance, systems like GPT-3, despite simple training methods, perform an array of tasks, sometimes even solving complex math problems without specialized training. These human-like abilities are unexpected, indicating a faster-than-anticipated progress in AI functionality 2.

In terms of economic impact, advanced AI models could work continuously at high efficiency, potentially generating immense economic value. This supports the rapid deployment and scaling of AI capabilities across various sectors, including skilled technical work, which will further fuel its growth 3.

Overall, the accelerating pace of AI progress suggests transformative impacts on many facets of society and technology within a relatively short time frame.