Fourth Turning

The concept of the "Fourth Turning," developed by historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, describes how history moves in cycles of about 80-100 years, each divided into four "turnings" of approximately 20-25 years each. Currently, we are believed to be in a "fourth turning," a period characterized by crisis and significant change. Here are some key insights about the Fourth Turning:

1. Phases of the Fourth Turning:

   • Precursors: Events that foreshadow major crises, such as World War I before the Great Depression and World War II.
   • Crisis Era: A generation-long period where multiple crises can occur, demanding public mobilization and creating a sense of urgency. These phases follow a specific chronology although they can vary in timing and intensity 1.

2. Generational and Cultural Shifts:

   • Younger generations today show a significant shift in attitudes towards issues like feminism, increasingly viewing it as having caused more harm than good. This is a notable inversion compared to sentiments 40-50 years ago and illustrates the generational exhaustion and change characteristic of fourth turnings 2.

3. Political and Social Mobilization:

   • Political engagement spikes during fourth turnings, as seen in the increased voter participation since the 2016 US presidential election. Historical parallels involve significant public mobilization and shifts in national focus during eras such as the Great Depression and World War II. The present period has seen heightened political tribalism and concerns about civil conflict 3.
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       1

       Unraveling the Fourth Turning

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       2

       Generational Shifts

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       3

       America's Political Transformation

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       4

       Navigating Fourth Turnings

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4. Navigating the Fourth Turning:

   • During these times of crisis, it becomes crucial to reinforce community and family networks as public institutions may falter. Historical patterns show that solidarity and close-knit relationships become more critical in getting through such turbulent periods 4.

This period is both challenging and transformative, often leading to major social, political, and economic restructuring. Understanding these cycles can help in preparing for and navigating the changes that come with them.