The rise of new powers has historically led to significant shifts in global dynamics, often accompanied by conflict and rivalry.

Ray Dalio emphasizes that throughout the last 500 years, there have been 16 instances where a rising power challenged an existing one. Out of these, 12 led to actual wars. For example, in the 1930s, Germany and Japan rose to challenge the established powers, leading to World War II. Dalio discusses the concept of the Thucydides Trap, where the tension between a rising and an established power frequently results in conflict, as seen between the U.S. and China today 1 2 3.

Dalio also distinguishes between different types of conflicts that can arise, including trade wars, technological competition, geopolitical struggles, capital conflicts, and potentially military wars. Each of these conflicts reflects the complexities involved when old and new powers clash over influence and resources 2.

Amrita Narlikar adds another perspective by highlighting the debates within political science. She questions whether rising powers are revisionist, seeking to radically change global order, or status quo, fitting within the existing system. Economic analyses focus on growth patterns and their sustainability, pointing out that the transition of power involves significant bargaining and negotiations 4.

In essence, the historical pattern shows that the rise of new powers often disrupts existing global structures, necessitating adjustments and often leading to conflicts across multiple dimensions.