Are correlations always predictable?

Correlations are not always predictable. In a discussion with David Deutsch, Dwarkesh Patel highlighted that while correlations are common, there is an element of randomness in them. Patel noted that our surprise often comes when expected correlations align, though correlations can exist between seemingly unrelated factors, like bird flu outbreaks and movies made by a particular actor. Deutsch pointed out that the predictability of specific abilities or events is challenging, but statistical averages might offer some predictability, albeit limited.

Additionally, in another conversation, Eliezer Yudkowsky emphasized that while some theories can explain phenomena retrospectively, predicting specific future events often remains difficult. This inherent unpredictability suggests that while we can observe correlations, predicting their emergence precisely is not always feasible 1 2 3.