What is plausible deniability in Syria?

In the context of Syria, "plausible deniability" is a strategy used by the Assad regime to distance itself from its illicit activities. Caroline Rose explains that even though key figures in the regime, including Assad's own brother, are involved in operations like the captagon trade, the regime maintains a narrative of plausible deniability. This includes having the Ministry of Interior conduct small drug seizures to appear proactive while ignoring the larger scale of the problem. This tactic allows them to claim that they are combating the issue while continuing to benefit from it 1.

This balancing act is used strategically as a pressure tactic against regional neighbors. The regime can leverage its control over illicit networks to influence negotiations and regional stability by threatening to increase smuggling or violence if their interests are not met 2.