Will AI experience a phase shift?

Lex Fridman and Eliezer Yudkowsky discussed the concept of phase shifts in AI, particularly in the context of advancements from GPT-3 to GPT-4. They explored the idea that while incrementally throwing more computational power at an existing architecture (like GPT-3) results in significant leaps (like GPT-4), it may not constitute a "phase shift" until something fundamentally changes in the architecture or underlying methods. They refer to transformative breakthroughs, such as the introduction of transformers, as potential initiators of a phase shift in AI capabilities 1.