Published Sep 6, 2022

SDS 607: Inferring Causality — with Jennifer Hill

Jon Krohn and Jennifer Hill explore the art and science of inferring causality in data, delving into Bayesian statistics, hierarchical models, and innovative tools like Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to uncover deeper insights in data science.
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  • Model Structure

    Hierarchical models, also known as multilevel models, allow for more nuanced data analysis by breaking down data into subgroups. explains that these models can be structured in tiers, such as school districts and individual classrooms, enabling inferences at different levels 1. This approach contrasts with traditional models that assume uniformity across all data points 2.

    This then allows you to make inferences at the classroom, or at least the school district level that otherwise you wouldn't be able to do.

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    Such granularity is crucial for accurate data interpretation and decision-making.

       

    Educational Use

    In educational research, hierarchical models are particularly useful for accounting for the similarities within subgroups, such as students in the same school. notes that traditional methods often assume data points are independent, which is rarely the case in real-world scenarios 3. By recognizing these dependencies, hierarchical models provide more accurate confidence intervals and inferences 4.

    If you've got kids who grew up in the same family together or go to the same school together, there are going to be things that are similar to them because they're in that same environment.

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    This allows for more precise and meaningful insights, especially in complex environments like education.

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